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Jeremy Kappell

A One-Two Powerhouse Punch!

High Wind Warnings a Wind Advisories have been posted for much of the region including all of Western New York. 

The Warning goes into effect at 10 am on Wednesdayfor areas across the Niagara Frontier, Buffalo and into far SW NY.  An Advisory goes into effect at 1 pm for the remainder of the area on Wednesday.

How strong will the winds be?

While the Warning is posted for winds UP TO 60 mph, most of the data is coming in a little lower with 50 to 55 mph gusts pretty widespread for the warned area.  Those higher gusts could travel well away from Lake Erie into the higher terrain across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.  Closer to the Ontario Lake Plain, winds look to still be gusts, but not as high in the 40 to 45 mph range for most.

Wednesday's system will be the first of two powerhouse low pressure systems that look to sweep out of the Rockies and into the Eastern US over the next several days.  

While the Wednesday's storm will pack a punch with some wind and rain, it's the second storm system that may be more impactful weather wise with a growing potential for both ice and snow.  Although there are many details that will need to be resolved before models will have a good handle, at this point, it does appear likely that we will see a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet and rain developing on Sunday. 

Will we see accumulations of ice?

Temps will play a critical role as to we see a lower profile that will be marginal at best for ice accumulations. 

However, across the higher terrain, where temps will be conducive, ice could become an issue with the current run of the Euro showing widespread quarter to half an inch of ice.  While far from a certainty, this will be complex storm system that will involve multiple low pressure systems that will induce "differential advection" allowing for warmer air aloft and enough cold air available closer to the surface to potentially become problematic. 

While a mixed bag looks to be in the works on Sunday and into Sunday night. as low pressure transitions from the Great Lakes, into a coastal low on Monday, data suggests that we could be looking at a period of moderate to heavy snowfall across portions of Upstate.

What about snow potential?

While today's run of the Euro weather model came in HOT with the idea of significant snowfall.  There hasn't been much run to run consistency yet so confidence in this data is not all that high yet.  Previous run for instance only showed a couple of inches possible for most of the area and the other main medium range model, the GFS has shown similar inconsistencies.  

So what do I think?

I think we'll have our hands full over this holiday weekend with some wind tomorrow and the potential of some bad travel by the end of the weekend/early next week.  We'll have plenty of time to monitor. 

Be sure to join Lisa and I for the latest in tonight's edition of WxLIVEat845.  See you in then!



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