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Jeremy Kappell

Despite Ground Hog Predictions, Winter Potential Ramping Up this Week!

As the saying goes, there's a storm a brewin...

Despite the Ground Hog's prognostication from this morning, there's reason to believe that winter will not be going down without a fight, especially with what could be in store for us this coming week.

We are monitoring the arrival of vigorous jet stream energy over the next few days that looks to develop into a large upper level trough acros the Eastern US by the end of the week.  

Within these winds are multiple disturbances that are expected to impact the region in the form of precipitation starting as early as Tuesday.  However, the strongest of these storms are expected to arrive on Friday with the potential of significant wintry precipitation.  

Until this afternoon's model runs, there were a LARGE disagreement amongst the models with respect to the forecast track of the primary low with the Euro previously cutting the low north into the Central Great Lakes which would keep us in the warm side of the system... resulting in mixed precipiation and just plain ol' rain.  However, the GFS had been quite consistent over the last couple of days keeping the trackmuch further south crossing over the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic which would bring an entirely different outcome. 

So what do I think?  

I sent this tweet out earlier this afternoon as the new run of the Euro came in and let's just say it has had quite the change of opinion.  

With that being said, we are still five days out and tracks can and will fluctuate. 

However, I believe that with the Euro shifting as much as it did (as did it's ensembles btw) this puts much of New York State, Parts of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians as well as New England into a favored area for heavy snowfall... or into "The Snow Zone"!

So how much could we be looking at?  

Again we are five days out, so I'm not putting out official forecast numbers yet.  However, I can share some model projections.  Keep in mind, the GFS has BY FAR been the most bullish on this storm and continues with this afternoon run with total liquid precip perhaps on the order of 1 to 2 inches over Western New York and heftier totals of 2.5 inches possible for the week across Central NY.  This of course would translate to GIANT snow totals if it verifies.  

That's a BIG IF.  However, it is worth watching.  Also to note, not all this will fall at the same time with multiple waves of precipitation expected this week so the above model projections are the total through Saturday morning. 

Be sure to monitor my social feeds for updates on this potentially significant winter storm system.

Lisa and I will be back with a full update on when to expect starting with PM Drive at 4:45 pm on Monday and again, of course, on WxLIVE at 8:45!  See you then!

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