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Jeremy Kappell

Tornado Outbreak Likely. Who is at Risk..

A large outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is expected as we head into this evening and tonight for much of the region including parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mississippi River Valley as well as parts of the South.  

FROM SPC: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE MID-SOUTH

SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South, lower/middle Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas.

A robust line or lines of thunderstorms is expected to sweep east from the Mississippi River Valley this evening, through the Tennessee and Lower Ohio River Valleys as well as portion of Dixie.  

These storms will be capable of destructive winds in excess of 70 or 75 mph, large hail and strong tornadoes.  The below map from the Storm Prediction Center shows where the main threat for stronger tornadoes (EF2+) will be from St. Louis to Louisville and southward through Memphis, Nashville, Jackson, Little Rock and Alexandria.  

These storms look to organize along and ahead of a powerful cold front that move quickly eastward overnight forming both descrete supercell-like structures and also bowing segments associated with a QLCS or quasi-linear convective system , both of which will pose a damaging wind and tornado threat in addition to the possibility of very large hail.  

Eventually, storms should begin to weaken by late evening and overnight as the atmosphere gradually stabilizes with loss of heating.  

I'll be monitoring and with LIVE COVERAGE from My Weather YouTube Page & Wx LIVE Media FB Page.

If you live in a risk area, be sure to have your emergency action plan ready to go.  Stay alert and be safe. 

-Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Speaker, Talk Show Host, Blogger and American Patriot

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