SEVERE OUTBREAK: Destructive Winds & Strong Tornadoes Possible!

A vast area from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast is under the threat of severe thunderstorms with high winds and tornadoes later today and tonight. A MODERATE RISK of severe weather has been issued for parts of the Deep South including the entire state of Mississippi and parts oArkansas, Louisianna, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. An ENHANCED RISK has been posted for much of the Lower MS River Valley, TN River Valley and Dixie. A SLIGHT RISK has been placed from the Lower Ohio River Valley all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

A massive squall line of thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the entire region quickly becoming severe during the afternoon and evening hours with damaging winds the primary threat for many. Wind Advisories have been issued for much of the region where winds could gust in excess of 50 mph even without thunderstorms. However, there will be a growing threat for TORNADOES as well for many across the South and STRONG TORNADOES are likely for some.

The straight line wind risk will be greatest from Western TN, down through Dixie to near the Gulf Coast where the Storm Prediction Center has identified a robust area of 45% for 60+ mph damaging wind gusts. Also much of that region could see DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS on the order of 75 to 80 mph as the squall line taps into very strong winds a short distance a loft.

The highets tornado threat, by far, will be across the Deep South where embedded supercells are expected to develop within the QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) squall line with isolated discrete supercells also possible immediately ahead of it for parts of Eastern LA, AR, all of MS and into parts of AL and FL with greatest threat occurring during the late afternoon and evening hours.

However, the tornado threat will remain overnight for areas much further east especially into Southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle. STRONG TORNADOES (EF2+) will be possible from Memphis to Alexandria, from Birmingham to Panama City potentially impacting more than 10 million people.