A Moderate Risk for Severe Storms has been Issued. Long-track Tornadoes Possible!
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage,
along with some hail, are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening,
extending into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. A few
strong/long-track tornadoes will be possible.
A deep and progressive mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move
from the central/southern Rockies eastward Tuesday morning to parts
of the Mississippi Valley region by early Wednesday. A surface
cyclone initially over central KS will move quickly northeastward
toward the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday evening, as an attendant
cold front sweeps through the Great Plains and eventually into the
...Lower/mid MS Valley into the Southeast...
The potential for several long-track supercells remains evident
across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night, with a threat of strong tornadoes, scattered wind
damage, and hail.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture will quickly stream northward
across the lower/mid MS Valley region ahead of the cold front on
Tuesday, aided by a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Meanwhile,
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, in
advance of the deep/progressive mid/upper-level trough. This will
result in the development of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg) across the warm sector. This destabilization will be
occurring within a strongly sheared environment supportive of
organized storms, including supercells.
Initially elevated convection is expected to gradually increase in
coverage through the morning across the ArkLaTex region within a
low-level warm advection regime, with additional development
possible farther south across southern LA/MS where somewhat stronger
heating is expected. A few surface-based supercells are expected to
evolve by afternoon, which could potentially be longer-lived as they
move northeastward through a moistening and strongly sheared
environment. Favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH will support a tornado
threat, though some uncertainty remains regarding the impact of
potentially weak low-level lapse rates on the tornado potential. Any
sustained supercells within the warm sector could pose a strong
tornado threat, in addition to a risk of hail and damaging gusts.
Storm coverage will continue to increase through the evening and
overnight hours, with favorable low-level moisture and strong
low-level and deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat of all
severe hazards. Some tornado potential is likely to continue
overnight across parts of MS into western/central AL.
...Parts of the OH Valley/Midwest...
Weaker low-level moisture return is expected farther north into
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley in advance of the cold front.
Despite weak buoyancy, favorable large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer flow could support a threat of locally damaging gusts
with any sustained low-topped convection. There is some potential
for a damaging wind threat to spread farther north than currently
indicated, and some northward expansion of wind probabilities is
possible depending on shorter-term observational and guidance
I'll be watching closely as storms develop late Tuesday.
If conditions warrant, I will stream LIVE COVERAGE from My Weather YouTube Page & Wx LIVE Media FB Page.
If you live in a risk area, be sure to have your emergency action plan ready to go. Stay alert and be safe.
Meteorologist, Speaker, Talk Show Host, Blogger and American Patriot