Rodent Sees Shadow: Will he be right about SIX MORE WEEKS OF WINTER??

The Famous Rodent Weather-Prognosticator was at it again this morning with yet another gloomy prediction for this winter season.

The Groundhog, known as Punxsutawney Phil, who resides in the tiny village of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvannia in rural western parts of the Keystone State made his annual prediction this morning when he saw his shadow. An occurrence which is supposed to bring six more weeks of winter, but will he be correct?

In a nutshell. Unfortunately, YES, I believe he's right this time.

Let's dive into the models:

We'll focus on the Europpean and it's counterparts for the purpose of this discussion.

First, if you take a snapshot of what the current run of the Euro (12z today) you will see we have some HUGE CHANGES coming over the next two weeks with GLORIOUS spring-like temps expected tomorrow (image of the left) for much of the Midwest, Southern Plains, Midsouth and Southeastern US where highs are expected to reach well into the 60's and 70's for most!! This will be a very nice reprieve after such a brutal January. However, the same run shows a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY once we arrive into Mid-February with widespread subfreezing temps again for the South and DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS again for much of the Midwest, Plains and Great Lakes as temps go SUBZERO AGAIN for many.

The culprit for this pattern shift will be a change in the jet stream pattern over North America as we go from a progressing west-to-east pattern which prevents the intrusion of arctic air very far south into the US to ONCE AGAIN another VERY DEEP trough in the upper levels across the central and eastern parts of the continent by mid-month.

Here's what it looks like in temperature anomaly form. You know those deep puples are NEVER GOOD.

While that takes us out a good two-weeks, is there a product that can help with the longer-range forecast that can corroborate the Ground Hog's forecast?

Yes, I'm glad you asked. Introducing the Euro "Weekly Extended" Long-range Forecast Model showing the trend for the remainder of February through Mid-March here.

Notice the persistence of blues and cool colors for most of the US with the exception across the Deep South and Southwest.

So what does this mean?

Don't put your winter coats away just yet, winter resumes soon and the second act could rival the first.

For the record, Phil sees his shadow approximately 75% of the time. However, he's only right about 50% of the time. This time his odds look better. Sorry for the bad news.

Stay tune.

Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Writer, Journalist