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Jeremy Kappell

Winter Storm Warning Issued for much of Western New York!

As expected a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for much of Western New York and Northern Upstate New York.

Here's the latest from the National Weather Service:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
756 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019

Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo,
and Canandaigua

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Locally higher amounts
  possible.

* WHERE...The Genesee Valley and Northern Finger Lakes.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Conditions will
  deteriorate during the day Monday, with the heaviest snowfall
  rates and worst travel from late Monday afternoon through late
  Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Timing out the storm..

The latest run of the hires NAM shows an intial rain/snow mix developing tonight changing over to light snow by morning.  As low pressure approaches from the southwest into Central Appalachia, the snow shield is expected to expand and snowfall rates look to increase during the afternoon on Veteran's Day.  With temps near or just below freezing, accumulations will begin on grassy and elevated surfaces before covering road surfaces by late afternoon.  

Snowfall becomes heavy as the potent low pressure system passes to our south across Central PA during the evening and into Monday night.  The heaviest of the snow will be over prior to dawn on Tuesday with some lake enhanced snow showers remaining throughout the morning and into the afternoon on Tuesday. 

So how much are we talking about?

Data continues to come in this evening showing HIGHER precipitation amounts than previously forecasted.  Take the new run of the 3k NAM below showing total liquid on the order of three-quarters of an inch to near an inch and a quarter across the Finger Lakes, Niagara Frontier and the Lake Plains from Orleans through Monroe and Wayne Counties through 7 am Tuesday morning.  

Model Snow Projections

With that being said, the NAM is coming in VERY aggressively this evening with the new run showing an impressive swath of 8 to as much as 14 inches for Rochester.  

As aggressive as that seems, most of the other computer models are not too far behind.  Take this afternoons run of the Euro for instance showing a zone of 8 to 12 inches for the area.

So what do I think?

I think the track is favorable for a heavy snowfall across Western, Central and into Northern sections of Upstate NY.  At this range, and with so much continuity among all the major models, this looks like a slam dunk for heavy snowfall for much of our region.  You add into the fact that we will see a signficant system wide snow, the level of lake enhancement shouldn't be underestimated considering how warm Lake Ontario is right now and with such an unseasonably cold airmass arriving on the backside of this storm.  

We have much to monitor.  I expect the Watch to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning this evening for much of our area.  

I'll have the latest details including where I think a foot of snow will be possible in tonight's WxLIVEat845.  See you in a bit!

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