A Significant Winter Storm In Progress. Updating Timing & Totals.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for much of Western, Central and Northern New York as we head into the overnight.

Here's this afternoon's update from the National Weather Service:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo,
and Canandaigua
223 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occuring. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12
inches.

* WHERE...The Genesee Valley and Northern Finger Lakes.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 9 AM EST Tuesday. The
heaviest snow is expected tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Conditions will
deteriorate during the afternoon and evening as snowfall rates
increase and temperatures begin to drop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Timing out the storm:

While the snow has began to pick up in intensity this afternoon and roads are now becoming covered, the worst of the weather looks to arrive this evening and overnight with 1 to 2 inch per hour rates expected btween 6 pm and 4 am. This will add up quickly and roads will become hazardous. Travel is not recommended.

How much are we talking about?

Data continues to ramp up the amount of precipitation with this storm and our high resolution weather models are showing CONSIDERABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT for our Lake Counties including Orleans, Monroe and Wayne overnight where total liquid precip is expected to exceed an inch.

A lot of this will be falling while temps drop well down into the 20's helping to increase the snow ratio which will in turn boost totals.

The current run of the 3k NAM shows a very large accumulation gradient across Western New York with just a few inches for areas like Corning and Binghamton. However, up along the Niagara Frontier and up close to Lake Ontario, where the cold air will be in place, and moisture will be aided by the warm lake waters, those totals could be MUCH higher with the current run showing locally 16 with a bullseye on Rochester.

So what do I think?

I think we have a real mess on our hands here. As discussed during my blog from yesterday, even though it's early in the season, the track of this storm is a classic snow producer for our area especially for near Rochester and into the Niagara Frontier. In addition, lake enhancement will play a big role in boosting those totals for the Lake Counties where I think we are looking at widespread 10-14" of snowfall. Totals look to be generous for much of the I-90 corridor with a general 6-10" expected for areas like Buffalo, Henrietta and Geneva as well. The southern Finger Lakes look to come in with lesser amounts on the order of 3-6" and only around 1-3" further south for Ithaca and Hornell.

The system snow will be followed by lake effect snow squalls be late on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning with additional localized accums. This my friends will come with record challenging cold for mid November standards as highs don't escape the 20's and lows drop well down into the teens. This is some real midwinter-like weather coming a full two months early.