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Weekend Weather Woes and a Tricky Halloween Forecast
Jeremy Kappell

Weekend Weather Woes and a Tricky Halloween Forecast

After a relatively quiet start to the weekend, a fast moving storm system pulls out of the Middle Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes Saturday night bringing with it a shield of rain that looks to arrive Saturday night.  The rain lingers through the morning on Sunday before diminishing to a few showers during the afternoon with breezy, but relatively mild conditions as highs climb into the 60's.  

Looks like we'll be treated to a nice start to next week with the return of sunshine Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs warming well up into the 60's, the Euro, shown below, is even suggesting highs could near 70 by Tuesday afternoon.  

Be sure to enjoy it, because it won't last. A front slips into the area on Wednesday with a shower chance as temps begin to dip. 

A "Tricky" Haloween Forecast

Behind this front, models are point towards a sizeable storm system that will impact much of the region late week.  However, they don't agree on the exact timing and placement.  The current run of the GFS, shown below, shows a low blowing up over the Mid-Atlantic and then into New England late Wednesday and into Halloween.

A system as advertised like this would bring a slug of cold rain and wind to the area on Thursday with even the potential for wet snow across the higher elevations across the Southern Tier and and the Adirondacks.  

However, the Euro, and I think the more likely scenario, is to track the low across the Great Lakes late Thursday/early Friday.  A track such as this would bring the rain in about the time kids are heading out for trick or treating and would be followed by gusty and eventually colder conditions on Friday.

Behing this storm, much of the data is pointing towards the coldest air of the by the end of next weekend with widespread 20's for lows across much of the region. 

So What Do I Think?

I think timing will not be on our side when it comes to the Halloween storm.  While it's not a guarantee we see rain, it indeed appears likely regarless of which model is ultimately correct.  With that being said, I do favor the Euro track which would put those snow ideas on hold for now.  When it comes to the cold, well I think it's getting that time of the year and we are due.  

Lisa and I will be back TONIGHT with special "Fortnite" Friday edition of WxLIVEat845.  See you in a bit!


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