Early Winter Thaw Continues into 2020...
After our crazy fast start to the winter which included nearly 40 inches of snowfall at the Rochester International Airport, suddenly and quite ironically, the snow machine has completely shut off with the official arrival of winter. In fact since the solstice on the 21st, we have received zero snow and that looks to remain he case as we wrap up 2019 and head into the new decade.
Persistent upper level ridging has been responsible for the recent warmth and judging by current model trends, more "ridging" or upper level high pressure can be expected which will lead to more warm days ahead as we enter the new year.
The Climate Prediction Center agrees with this assessment and has issued a high confidence outlook for "above normal" temps over the Eastern US in the 6 to 10 day range.
This forecast includes the expected highs into the lower 50's tomorrow for Rochester which are running about 15 to 20 degrees above climatological averages for this time of the year.
How long will the warmth persist?
This afternoon's run of the Euro forecast model shows temps, after runningf near to well above average over the next week to week and a half, finally shows a significant cool down arriving during the second week of January.
This idea is consistent with the current run of the GFS and it's ensembles.. which means that we can all take a nice break from the shoveling and plowing for a while.
Don't hold your breath however, I'm sure it won't be long before the cold and snow return.
Updating your New Year's forecast in tonight's edition of WxLIVE at 8:45! See you in a bit.