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Jeremy Kappell

Drought Spreads into NY State and Much of Northeast

The US Drought Monitor released their weekly update today declaring all of New York State and MUCH of the Northeast as Abnormally Dry (D0) or already in D1 Drought Status. Parts of the St. Lawrence River Valley as well as Northern Maine have been declared a D2 Severe Drought!

While parts of the region may seem some decent help over the weekend, namely because of newly formed Tropical Storm Fay, this won't be the answer for everyone.  The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting widespread rain amounts on the order of 1.5-2.5" for much of the Northeast over the next week and also some generous amounts of up to 1.5" into far Western NY.  

However, you will notice the gap they have painted for Rochester and into parts of the Southern Tier where I think these amounts are probably too generous mainly b/c of the track of Fay.  The latest run from the hires NAM, below, showing Fay bringing an abundance of rain for Eastern New York and even into Central parts of the state.

With that being said, even this track is likely too far to the west leaving much of Western NY out of the money as shown by the latest National Hurricane Center Forecast Track.  

I think this leaves Rochester and the Genesee River Valley in an area of "subsidence" or sinking air aloft further reducing our chances for anything beneficial for the start of the weekend.  Although I do like us for some showers either late Saturday or into Sunday, overall I think the drying trend continues and eventually drought sets in for much of the region.

This idea is backed up by the latest July outlook from the Climate Prediction Center keeping much of the Eastern/Central Great Lakes in a high probabilty of below normal precipitation. 

Fingers crossed this pattern changes soon, but right now, I'm not getting my hopes up.  In addition to a looming drought, after setting some records for heat across parts of NY (Buffalo and Watertown) round two might be coming next week.  I'll be watching the trends closely.

Lisa and I will be back with a full udpate on #WxLIVE at 845 Sunday night. 

In the meantime, have a great weekend!

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