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August Outlook
Jeremy Kappell

August Outlook

Is it just me, or is this summer just flying by???  After a wet and relatively cool June, summer has really been flexing it's muscles during the month of July with several 90's and temps that have averaged about 3 1/2 degrees above average for the month and it's been drying out too with rainfall running about about a half to three-quarters of an inch below normal in the rainfall department.  

So what's next?  How's August shaping up?

Current forecast keeps high pressure in control for the first week of August with sunshine and temps running up into the 80's each day through the weekend.  

However, taking a look at the jet stream pattern, a series of significant troughs of low pressure look to develop over Eastern North America as we head on into next week.

Both the GFS and Euro agree with this general pattern of upper level troughing which will likely lead to temps cooling into that second week of August.  

The Climate Prediction Agrees with this idea and has a forecast for cooler than normal conditions during that stretch with perhaps above normal precip as well.

Looking out the rest of the Month, the overall expectation is for above normal temps to resume for the Eastern and Western Sections of the US with cooler than average conditions across the nation's midsection.

Rainfall looks to be near normal for most of the US with the exception being across the Central US and Alaska.  Average rainfall for Rochester is about 3 1/2 inches for the month of August.

So what do I think?

Overall, I think we are looking at a pretty typical August shaping up.  However, if we don't get some substantial rainfall soon, I think temps could get quite hot with many 90 degree days potentially left in the month.  However, we'll be watching the tropics especially during the later half of the month for help with moisture and beneficial rainfall.  In the meantime, be sure to take advantage of our summer warmth while we get to keep it.  It won't be long now before the colder winds return.  

See you during our next WxLIVEat945!

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