A Sunday Soaker!
Those jet stream winds are active across the continental United States right now. With ridging evident along both coasts, a natural, and progressive trough of low pressure has formed across the Central US favoring large storm systems to form while interacting with increasingly moisture laden air masses.
Following the Plains Blizzard last week, the next storm emerges from a long wave trough in the upper pattern that will result in another potent low pressure system, this one developing into the heart of Texas on Saturday. Here's a look at forecasted precipitable water imagery on the order of an 1.5 to 2.0 inches across the Southern Plains and Northern Gulf showing a large amount of moisture being pulled up by this system into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Saturday afternoon.
This storm as it gets going during the heating of the day across the Lower Mississippi River Valley could get nasty with a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather in place and the potential will be there for a few strong tornadoes across portions of Northern Louisanna and Southeast Arkansas and into Western Mississippi Saturday afternoon.
This low quicky strengthens Saturday night and mkes a bee line for the Ohio Valley which could have an impact of Thunder over Louisville with rain and tstorm approaching at start time. It will be close. Maybe some natural thunder on Thunder.
From there, the storm races through the Ohio Valley and into Western New York by Sunday. This looks liks an all day rain and will be heavy at times.
So how much rain?
The models are converging with the GFS now advertisig widespread one inch to an inch and a half totals for all of the area.
The Euro is a bit more bullish with totals running from around two to two and a half inches across Western New York.
Take your pick, it's going to get wet on Sunday. Golashes required!