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Jeremy Kappell

A "Double Barreled Low" Looks to Unleash 1-2 Punch for Eastern US

It's been a while since I sat down to to a good ol' fashion weather blog.  But despite all the distractions that continue to exist in the world of news and politics, I thought now was a good time to dive back into the weather universe with multiple storms on the way over the next week plus over the Eastern US with a real taste of winter for some.  

Storm #1

The first storm is currently organizing over the Southern Tier of the US.  This, somewhat cut-off, upper low looks to lift northeast and then rapidly "phase" with the northern branch of the jet stream over the next couple of days resulting in rapid storm development and intensification.

As a result, a surface low looks to develop across the Northern Gulf by Early on Sunday and then quickly deepen as it travels up the spine of the Appalachians late over the weekend/early this week.  

While this will be primarily a rain event for the East Coast, there will be enough cold air pulled down behind to to create an opportunity for snowfall for portions of the Ohio River Valley, Appalachians and Great Lakes.

Early Season Snows for Some

Even areas that don't nomally see snow this early in the season could be at play for a few inches across Mid-Tennessee and Eastern Kenucky.  However, the potential for heavier snows exist across the higher terrain along the Appalachians and downwind of a few of the Great Lakes namely Lake Erie, Huron and Ontario where the favored snow belts look to produce a decent swath of early season snowfall to the tune of 6 to 12 inches possible between Sunday night and Tuesday.  The chance for some heavy, wet lake effect will likely shift east by midweek perhaps bringing snows into parts of Western NY and particularly downwind of Lake Ontario where the Tug Hill/Adirondacks could be in line for a pretty good event.  We will have to wait on those details, but a foot plus appears easily possible. 

Double Barreled Low

Looking beyond the initial storm which looks to be quite potent, the data suggests that a second, perhaps equally strong storm will take shape during the second half of next week.  Notice the "double barrel low" featured by GFS 500mb height anomalies by early Wednesday.

Storm #2

This second storm is projected by both the Euro and GFS.  However, the GFS (shown below) in particular is pouncing on the idea of it also rapidly deepening bringing the potential for wind, rain and heavy snow. 

Generally speaking, the second low looks to develop over the Northern Gulf by Friday before zipping up the East Coast next weekend with the potential for good snows on the backside likely.  Best chances for accumlating snow with this feature looks to center again across the Appalachians and northward into the Lower Great Lakes and the Northeast.

If the GFS is correct, this one could bring quite a bit of wind too.  However, uncertainty of strength is too low at this range to raise a flag on that.  We'll watch. 

Mid-range Pattern into December

The overall pattern, as shown by the Euro Ensemble 200 mb "jet stream wind" map featured steady troughing across the Central and into the Eastern parts of the continent over the next couple of weeks with a general shift towards the nation's midsection as we head into the second week of December with a STRONG "southwest-northeast" flow. 

This is typically a very wet pattern and will bring the potential for generous rains and snows depending on where exactly the cold sets up but also tracks of individual storm systems.

Lots to monitor in the coming weeks.  Stay tuned.

Lisa and I will have more on the developing weather pattern and potential for snow, along with latest news/politics starting Sunday night.  See you then!

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