Jeremy Kappell / Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Stories from '74: SPC's Deputy Director Bill Bunting

The Deputy Director of the Storm Prediction Center, William Bunting, sat down with me, virtually, to discuss the significance of the 1974 Super Outbreak and how it has led to MANY of the advances in meteorology that we take for granted today..

Alright, I'm joined by the Deputy Director of the Storm Prediction Center from out in Norman. OK, Bill Bunting. Bill, thank you for agreeing to come on the little program here. Great to be with you today.

So of course there's going to be a lot of people talking about an event that occurred 50 years ago on April 3rd. It’s hard to imagine that much time has gone by, but here we are with the 50th anniversary of just one of natures truly most incredible 50 weather events that we have ever witnessed. So I want to start by asking you a couple of maybe more personal questions. Then we can talk about what you do with the Storm Prediction Center and how the Storm Prediction Center has specifically changed from before April 3rd, 1974 to today. So with that being said, Bill on Tell me a little about yourself. Where were you on April 3rd of 1974? Well, it's one of those days I don't think I'll ever forget, even though I was only in junior high school. My interest in metorolology was already cemented. You know in my life when I was 9 or 10 was an early hurricane that did that was on that day. As mentioned, I was in 8th grade. I snuck an AM radio in the school ran out your piece inside of my shirt up into my ear so I could listen to the hourly news updates of the mounting death toll and the communities that were affected, because that was the only way we could get information back then, and I just remember at the time being struck by the magnitude of it to the extent that a person that young can really understand it. But with each hour more communities affected, more people injured, more, you know, damage being reported that just the next day was actually busy where I grew up in Eastern Virginia. And so it was one of those. My my interest was already set in stone, but that just accelerated. It was like after that day. I want to be a part of the system that helps to keep people informed and helps to keep them safe.

Right. You mentioned there was a hurricane that got your attention, but would that have been Camille? It would have been Camille, yes. You don't get a fairly rapid succession. Camille, Ginger and Agnes were three different games that you know you're struck by the extent to which society. Just everything else pauses and you deal with this looming threat and what the impacts will be.I was fascinated by it and I've been fortunate to have a career doing exactly what I dreamed and hoped I did right?

Right. Well, April 3rd, 1974 changed everything, as you know. What do you remember most vividly about that day, being getting into meteorology like you were? What were some of the aspects of that day that you remembered the most? I think the thing that struck me was that not just communities were hit with that in some cases, most of some communities were actually wiped out. I mean Zenia, Brandenburg. Northern Alabama, a couple of towns there. Just next element destruction, I mean, probably alters the history of these communities. Not just that it hits houses here and there are schools now. So remember how fortunate some communities were that it hit after school, even though a number of schools were destroyed where it hit the day when some businesses typically closed Wednesday afternoons. It's just again, the human toll. The death toll, of course, was staggering. An event like this is typically once every 40 or so years. So you know typical persons lifetime you may be experiencing one or two of these and just the overall the magnitude of the destruction. Of course later as I got into the science and began to understand the rarity of the event, it was just it was more an impetus for me to study it and to play whatever role I could in preventing you know loss of life and future storms right now.

You mentioned in event like this could have happened every 40 years and you know the April, was it April 2011? That comes to mind and when that occurred. Up until that point, I didn't have a reference point for 1974. I hadn't seen or experienced anything before or since that you could even equate or put it in the same ballpark with that April 11th that happened and suddenly we had an event and you could at least put it, like you said, on the same scale. Even though I would argue that 74 are still set apart in that regard, In fact I read no one's official report that said notic analysis that came out a few years after. And that's the key. I'm reading this material, super technical of course, but in that material it describes this as something like a as far as the atmosphere conditions that came together. Something like a 500 year storm. That's the way it's described in the technical analysis. Can you speak to that? There's lots of different ways to look at the various ingredients that came together. Focusing more on impacts, I think, every 40, perhaps 50 years, and it comes down to fine scale distinctions about, you know, uses the metric. Is it the combined path length, width and scale? Is it societal impacts? Is it magnitude of the 500 millibar wind speed? You can look at lots of different ways. I think in my younger years, I thought it was more like once a century or or something as infrequent as that. But now as I, I get deeper into my career approaching 39 years now, and have seen more of these events. 50 is probably the ballpark. It's hard to compare because the ways that we rated storms, in the early 20th century really throughout the 20th century differs from today. I know has changed, you know, with the amount of remote sensing, so it's hard to compare in the sense it is apples and oranges. But however you define it is extremely rare and I think days like April 3rd or April 27th. Maybe twice in your lifetime you'll get to see something like that, very, very rare.

Right? And I guess the real question is, is, you know, are we better off after these events and we know that there there was just a huge change in the way that we perceived, referenced. You know, when we communicate about these storms, the way we detect these storms, so can you go back and compare I want to compare the technology that was available in 1974 and the type of warnings that were given in 1974 and can we compare that to what we actually have today? And compare. I'll tell you, the old cliche of apples to oranges really holds true here, because in the early to mid 1970s we had two computer models. Neither were particularly accurate, but they were state of the science at the time and so not reported, giving you a picture of the large scale movement of weather systems. Our understanding of severe storms was not yet poised to take the big leap that it took the latter 25 years of the last century. Insert relevant in our scientific understanding, communications to ours were limited to the NOAA weather wire, which few stations had. Most people relied on radio and television, which worked admirably under those trying circumstances. Satellite data we would get with 30 to 45 minute latency, which you know. When you’re trying to make up-to-the-minute forecast in the morning decisions is not sufficient. Weather radars existed in a number of locations, but they were pretty Doppler, right. So they had, you know, limitations of what they could do and we're looking to get warnings out quickly by today's standards, you know, wasn't very fast but at the time. It was, it saved undoubtedly a number of lives. When you look at what's happened since then, I mean it it would be hard to imagine going back and my career actually started in the mid 80s when we had to teletypes. We had satellite data that was slow to come in. So I remember some of those days but. I didn't have to work a historic weather event with that technology, but where we are today just unfathomable. The advances in science, technology and understanding of how to communicate risk have really stepped forward in a dramatic fashion. Right? Absolutely.

You know, I look at back at April 30, 1974 and I oftentimes. Wonder how more people didn't die. It was such a, you know, huge event and as you know the the violence of the tornadoes and that day even when you compare it to the 2011 storm, you know as far as the upper end of the storms. It was just it was amazing and there was a lot of things that. Right into that, including the fact that population size and the urban sprawl was much smaller in 1974 compared to today, but despite all of our modern, you know, technology, the advanced radars and satellites that modeling the advanced communication within the warning system. You still have events like what happened in April of 2011, and you have what happened in Joplin in May of 2011, which was an unfathomable to me that over 100 people could die from a single tornado in today's modern era. How do you? How do you? How do you explain? Yeah, I think for all of our advances, the state of this science is defined by its limitations, which still largely at the tornado warning scale, have a warn on detection system. Not a warn on forecast system, which is what we're aiming towards both within the National Weather Service and the broader meteorological community. We have to give people more time. We have to be specific about which areas are likely to be impacted. And we have to get better at estimating likely tornado intensity? In the end. All the warnings or forecasts beginning seven or eight days in the future aren’t helpful if a person as a violent tornado approaches is inside of a vulnerable structure. Right? So we've got to get better at all of those aspects. One is there are people working really hard, and we are part of that effort here at the Storm Prediction Center. But our ultimate warning system as it stands now is based on Doppler radar, knowledge of the environment, spotter reports and new national averages 10 to 15 minutes. Stronger tornadoes. We can often give much longer lead times, but people have to know with enough time to get to shelter that I'm in a really vulnerable location. I've got to take action now. And sometimes really hard to do and it's hard to do skilfully and routinely.

Right, Right. And you know, obviously everyone needs to have an emergency action plan in place. And I think you need to have multiple plans. You need to have one for if you're happy, if you're at home or if you're if you're, if you're traveling. And as you said, there's a difference between your average tornado and those that are, you know, F4F5 that can completely level anything all the way down to the ground. So for those at home that don't have a basement. What do you suggest? Or maybe they don't have a storm shelter? What is your suggestion if there's a risk of a high end tornado impacting their community? I think to some extent it comes down to how long it takes you to get to shelter. If you know that you don't have access to a sturdy, reinforced building, you're you're not in one or you don't have one, you can get too quickly, you know. It's possible that you might want to consider getting to someplace like that well before storms arrive. We’ve gotten really good as a science evenly within the National Weather Service providing timing information. Within a certain area, and that's the most likely severe threat expected to materialize, and so you might want to consider being in closer to a sturdy location. It is a myth that you can't survive a direct hit from a violent tornado. Your odds are lower, but in analysis of violent tornadoes. People have survived the number of EF fours and EF fives. Even though you were in the direct path you it's survivable, but obviously you're on go up if you're in a sturdy shelter. Ideally the storm shelter itself, either below or above ground. Come down to a personal choice and how much time would it take me to get to that shelter. Right? Right.

So you know, looking back at the F5 particularly, you know and. I've been fascinated by Doctor Fujita's work, you know, ever since, you know, I was knew what a tornado really was. He kind of set the tone, you know, with the F scale, of course. The movie Twister came out in the mid 90s and it felt like that really raised awareness to the F scale, to the destructive. Potential of tornadoes. And of course it opened the doors for storm chasing. With the F5. Very, very rare, and everything I've ever learned suggests that it's less than. With way less than a single percentage. So if you have it you know the United States averages with 1000 tornadoes per year. They they always say it. Less than one of those will become an F5. As you know sometimes many years go by with no F5s at all. Right. And then on that day there were seven and prior to that there were never been more than two and a single day, which was just unfathomable. And now looking back, well we haven't seen enough five since Moore in 2013. Can you speak to that, the rarity of these, these types of events and you know, precautions and preparedness that you could take now for when they occur again? Sure, That's a great question, by the way. I think one thing I would say is the distinction between an EF4 and EF5. There are ways to distinguish, but in general, for all intents and purposes, if you're in violent Tornado, whether it's EF four or five, your response and the potential impacts or essentially the same. I think the reason why we haven't seen any F5, in part it’s good fortune. We haven't had structures hit that. Are able to be rated EF5 and it's also in part because of better training for the meteorologists with the National Weather Service to evaluate damage. We've had more of an engineering component that's been integrated into the grading process. Information whether it's F4 or F5 is probably important for historical purposes, but for all intents and purposes. Your reaction to either and even an EF 3 would substantially damage you know most homes should be about the same. Take it seriously. Like you said, I think it was an excellent point. Have plans for every place you might be home, school, work, outdoors, wherever. Be ready to put that plan to good use when that day comes. Hopefully it doesn't. Monitor for your community and the wording is dire and you know what to do.

Yeah, Excellent advice, Bill, I appreciate that very much. Well, obviously things have changed a lot and 50 years we're in a position to be much more successful. But there's a lot more people out there and not all of them are tied. What are the best ways to stay tied end to what's happening weather wise Obviously the Storm Prediction Center that's your all’s job here. It's it's to raise awareness to these events, especially the days in advance or hours in advance. Can you speak specifically to what the Storm Prediction Center does as opposed to what the local National Weather Service will do when it comes to advanced warning of these storms? Sure, we'll work closely together. That's the main thing I would say. You know, our mission is severe thunderstorm and tornado prediction. We do it out to 8 days in the future. We've seen over the past decade or two the increasing the portions of those extended range outlooks and sort of setting wheels into motion from planning and readiness. With the weather forecast offices, part of the National Weather Service may also rely heavily on private sector broadcasting, meteorologist, private sector weather companies, independent meteorologist and others who help get the word out. Advice to the people that would be watching is to find your trusted sources of weather information have multiple ways of receiving those warning messages. Routinely, and especially with thunderstorms are in the forecast, but there's a threat of severe weather, you almost have to flip a switch in your mind and go from thinking, OK, I've got things that are important in my life going on today or whatever the day in question is weather has to be one of them. It has to be something I'm tuned into looking for. On my favorite trusted weather app and have a weather radio to Alert me at night because a significant challenge and especially in the cool season. There's also the dependency on daytime here. For severe weather to occur, like we typically say in the heart of of summer, right situations often occur at night. They're fast moving and they affect areas of the country that are hilly and visibilities, something to wake you up. And if it's not going to be your smartphone, it needs to be a weather radio. So have those multiple sources involved have the plan. It's a bad time to Google tornado plan once the warming has been issued. Right? For sure. Now when the weather is quiet area to put that plan into action when you need to. That's right. It's going to be like muscle memory. You just know what to do when the time. Matters the most.

So excellent. Bill, it’s been wonderful talking to you. Do you have any thoughts or anything else you'd like to share specific to 1974 or what you do there at the Storm Prediction Center? I'd say first I really appreciate the invitation just to to visit with you today. Exit all by saying, you know, we have this incredible system in place in the US for prediction on whether high impact weather for warnings. In the end. If the person in the path of the storm doesn't receive it and take action. It doesn't matter. So there's strong emphasis on individual responsibility and accountability to use this information that we're all working together to provide, to do what you need to do to keep you and your family safe and so, it would really be a plea, especially in tornado prone areas. But as we see, it doesn't have to be. It can occur in unusual locations to just take the threat seriously. Be prepared. The odds are if you take prudent precautions you're going to be fine, but you want to make sure you're ready before the storm strike. Absolutely and. Severe weather season is upon us within the next month or two. Do you have any specific predictions for the season? You know, we're we're transitioning out of building you. And then we know that things like, you know, I mean, yeah, neutral states of those phenomena, they're not all the same. And if there's only one tornado in the US this year and it hits your house, it's a really bad year. That's right. I'm gonna hope for the best, but I know that as we move into mid March, and certainly in the April climatologically, it becomes increasingly the peak of tornado occurance. Our stance here is more prepared as we get into more of a La Nina pattern that we interesting. La Ninas often mean more active winter seasons, and we saw that last winter very clearly. While I try not to make a forecast I don't have to, and seasonal prediction for tornadoes is in its infancy. I wish we had more skill and working on it for now. The best I can say is, as you noted, you're exactly right. We're coming into the busy time of the year. Revisit your plans, put one together, if you don't have it, monitor the forecast to be ready to act. That sounds like a plan to me there, Bill. I appreciate you very much, my friend. It’s good to be with you Jeremy and thanks again. OK, alright, well that concludes the formal interview my friend and once we get this put together..

-Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Journalist, Writer, Speaker, Broadcaster