Round Two: Next Wintry Mess Strikes South and Mid Atlantic

Here we go again with another round of wintry weather for areas that don't typically see a lot of snow and ice. Winter Storm Warnings have again been issued for hard hit areas like San Antonio Texas, Shreveport Louisianna and Memphis Tennessee. These Warnings have now been extended though the Central Appalachia States and into the Mid-Atlantic. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for Philly, NYC and into Southern New England.

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 310 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 18 2021 - 00Z Sat Feb 20 2021

...Major winter storm to impact Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

...Rain/freezing rain to develop over parts of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

..Much below-average temperatures continue to hold on over the Central/Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast tonight into Thursday morning and over the Southeast into Friday morning...

Low pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico will move northeastward over the Southeast by Thursday evening. Simultaneously, a second low along the Southeast Coast will move northward along the Southeast Coast until moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday evening into Friday. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will overrun the boundary bringing moist air over very cold surface temperatures over the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A major winter storm will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Thursday night, containing threats for significant ice (rain/freezing rain), sleet, and heavy snow. Total ice accumulations of 0.25" to 0.5" (locally higher) are expected from Eastern Texas into Northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi through late tonight before the storm tracks northeastward. There is increasing potential for 0.25" to 0.5" (locally higher) ice accumulations across South-Central Virginia, a region still recovering from a major ice storm that occurred this past weekend.

A swath of snow will develop from parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, with the heaviest snow expected over the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians. There will be significant travel disruption in both the snow and ice areas with concern for further/extended power outages for areas already experiencing power outages with the storm.

Meanwhile, rain and showers/thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Gulf Coast moving into the Southeast on Thursday. The SPC issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast from tonight into Thursday morning. The severe thunderstorms' main hazards will be frequent lightning, damaging severe thunderstorm wind gust, hail, and a few tornadoes through Thursday morning. The severe weather Risk will continue over parts of the Southeast through Friday morning. Furthermore, light snow will develop over the Great Lakes on Thursday morning, continuing through Friday. Also, overnight Thursday, snow will develop over parts of New England.

In the meantime, light snow will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into the Rockies tonight into Thursday afternoon before mainly ending. Later on Thursday, a front will move onshore over the Northwest, moving inland to the Northern Rockies/Great Basin into California by Friday evening. The system will produce rain and higher elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California on Thursday evening. The snow will expand into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Friday. The coastal rain and higher elevation snow will continue through Friday evening. The Arctic air will also continue over the Plains and Mississippi Valley with temperatures of 25 to 40 degrees below average. -Ziegenfelder

Here's a look at some sample model snow and ice projections via the 18z NAM and 12z GFS...

While this won't be the storm of the century, it will add insult to injury to parts of the south already hampered by power outages and slick travel conditions.

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Be safe, stay tuned.

-Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Speaker, Talk Show Host, Blogger and American Patriot