FORECAST: A Crippling Winter Storm Expected!

A vigorous storm system in the upper-level jet stream winds looks to eject out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Sunday. This system is expected to interact with an abundance of cold air that is already in place across the Eastern US, while pulling up deep moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, producing the potential for a crippling amount of ice and snow for parts of the region.

Midrange forecast models are in generally good agreement that a surface low pressure will form by late Saturday across the Southern High-Plains by late Satureday with a potpouri of precipitation overspreading much of the Central Plains.

This low looks to deepen quickly as it tracks due east Saturday night and Sunday spreading a HUGE swath of precipitation along it's track with heavy snow along the I-70 corridor from Kansas City to Indianapolis. Further south towards the I-64 corridor, thanks to a surge of warmth a short distance above the surface, freezing rain and sleet look to be the primary modes of precipitation.

To the south of that, heavy rain and even strong thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front that looks to sweep from west to east as the storm progresses with the low pressure center and associated cold front crossing over the Mississippi River Valley by late Sunday and into the Mid-Atlantic by early Monday before precipitation winds down by late Monday.

How much Ice and Snow?

That is the million dollar question. What we know is this system will be capable of producing large amounts of both. However, as is often times the case with these types of complex winter storms, determining totals can be very difficult as small scale differences in track, intensity and temperature profiles of the atmosphere can make all the difference.

With that being said, our most reliable mid-range weather model, the Euro, has been pretty consistent in showing sizeable swath of heavy freezing rain across Central KS, through Southern MO, Southern IN, much of KY and into the Virginias. While it's too early bank on these estimates, it is alarming to see half inch and three-quarters of an inch of ice for many areas in that zone. Unfortunately, if realized, will be quite damaging with respect to trees, powerlines and roadways.

As far as snowfall is concerned. The area of greatest accumulation looks to occur along the northern extent of the path of accumulating ice with heavy snowfall amounts on the order of a foot to possibly a foot and a half of the white stuff along either side of the I-64 corridor in Kansas and Missouri as well as between I-70 and I-64 across Southern IL, IN and through OH. Some very heavy totals can also be expected into the higher terrain across West Virginia as well into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

So what do I think?

I think this storm is going to cause major problems for many millions of Americans. While the exact placement of the areas of heaviest freezing rain and snow will not be determined until the system arrives late over the weekend, it has all the earmarks of being a potentially crippling storm for many communities especially considering the amount of cold that will follow.

We have a few days to fine tune the forecast but preparations need to be made soon. I'll be back with more updates tomorrow.

In the meantime, stay tuned, stay warm and stay safe.

Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Writer, Journalist