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Jeremy Kappell Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Communicator, and Advocate for Christ

Jeremy and Lisa Ray Jeremy and Lisa Ray

Jeremy and Lisa Ray

Meteorologist, Communicator, and Advocates for Christ

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Kappell Weather Blog

March coming in like a Lamb? Read more

March coming in like a Lamb?

Food Watches have been issued for parts of the Ohio River Valley and Winter Weather Advisories posted for some in the Midwest.  When and how much rain, snow and wind in this update... 


Lisa Ray's Blog!

Grateful To Shine Read more

Grateful To Shine

When I became a mom, I DREAMT BIG for my kids. I remember years ago someone asking me, "What do you want most for your children?" I'll be honest, my initial response was for them to be happy, but then I really starting to think about that as they grew. As I got older, my wants, my dreams for my children changed..

Grateful for Right Now Read more

Grateful for Right Now

Day 84... We really don't know what tomorrow brings..but we have RIGHT NOW. Sometimes in our most overwhelming times, God will show us what's most important..

Grateful for Strong Leaders Read more

Grateful for Strong Leaders

Day I am grateful for strong leaders. This weekend is a somber one. Not only is Memorial day tomorrow as we honor our fallen military men and women, but it is bittersweet back home in Kentuckiana. So many times in life we like to capture "the firsts", but today marked "the last" for a man I call a legend. 

Grateful for Tears Read more

Grateful for Tears

Day I am grateful for tears. I was wakeful all night (it did not help that my cats decided to take turns pouncing me throughout the night). I am convinced they scheme their attacks..for some reason they enjoy taunting me and peacefully leave Jeremy to dream. Don't they know I keep their food stocked and litter box clean?  Regardless of my furry visitors, I was restless...

Grateful for Roller Coasters..Six Flags Anyone? Read more

Grateful for Roller Coasters..Six Flags Anyone?

Day 77...grateful for times of uncertainty. Ok lets be honest, I don't know many people who would openly admit they enjoy not knowing what's ahead. We make plans..whether it is a retirement plan, a 5 year plan, weekend plans or what's for dinner. As someone who enjoys planning kids' birthday parties, date nights with the hubs, or you know, can be extremely hard when life throws you something you couldn't possibly imagine..








Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 00Z Tue Mar 02 2021

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley through Monday

...Snow over the Upper Midwest into parts of the Northeast through Monday

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains, then
westward to the Southwest will slowly move eastward to off the East Coast
by Monday. Moisture pooling along the front will help produce rain and
thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Southern Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, with rain extending from Central/Southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic through Monday.

The WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley through
Monday morning. The heavy rain along the front will produce scattered
areas of flooding, with the most vulnerable areas will be urban areas,
roads, and small streams. Isolated areas of significant areas of flash
flooding are possible from Saturday evening into Monday morning. In the
meantime, a wave of low pressure over the western end of the front will
move from the Southern Rockies into Mexico by Monday. The wave will help
produce snow over parts of the Southern Rockies into the Panhandle of
Texas on Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.

Another front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains
will slowly move eastward to the Northeast by Monday. Light snow will
develop along the Northern Plains boundary into the Upper Great Lakes
through Sunday evening. Also, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop
over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Areas of rain will move into
the Great Lakes on Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night. Also,
overnight Sunday rain will move into parts of the Northeast that will
change over to snow from west to east over the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley into the Northeast on Monday morning into Monday evening. Along
the rain/snow line, rain/freezing rain areas will develop over parts of
the Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough over the Northern/Central Rockies will
move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Rockies by Sunday
evening. The energy will help produce light snow over the
Northern/Central Rockies on Saturday evening, ending overnight. Onshore
flow will help produce coastal rain and higher elevation snow over parts
of the Pacific Northwest through early Monday morning. On Monday, a front
will approach the Pacific Northwest and start to move inland by Monday

Elsewhere, fire weather is a concern across portions of the Southern High
Plains and Red Flag Warnings are in place there. Gusty winds are possible
in the southwestern U.S. and parts of California in particular, so
scattered Wind Advisories and High Wind Watches are in effect on Saturday
evening into Sunday morning.

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 02 2021 - 12Z Sat Mar 06 2021

...Heavy rain threat shifting eastward into the Southeast on
Tuesday before diminishing...

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation...

Since the ECMWF shifted toward the general GFS/GEFS scenario of
forming a closed low off California by the start of the period,
global models and ensembles have been showing indications of
converging toward a common solution on forecasting the pattern
evolution across the eastern two-thirds of the country for the
latter part of next week. There are still plenty of forecast
uncertainties yet to be resolved. Nevertheless, it is encouraging
to note that the GFS has now defaulted into the typically faster
solution cluster versus the typically slower ECMWF. The better
model agreement therefore has increased the confidence for the
upper low to track across the Southwest on Wednesday into Thursday
followed by an increasing chance for cyclogenesis to occur over
the southern Plains. There is also a general model trend of
tracking this system closer along the Gulf Coast later next week
instead of the earlier GFS idea of a much more inland track. The
latest (12Z) ECMWF now shows a faster forward motion of the upper
low, which is another encouraging sign that the model solutions
are converging. Meanwhile, the CMC offers a more suppressed
solution which keeps the system more as an open wave while
tracking east across the northern Gulf.

Otherwise, for the first half of the period, the GFS cluster takes
the rain faster eastward across the Deep South into the Southeast.
The GEFS mean and EC mean show a better agreement in this regard.
Along the West Coast, a deep trough originated from a deep upper
low in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to edge closer toward the
coast by the end of next week. There is a trend for the trough to
arrive earlier than previous forecasts.

The WPC medium-range forecast package was derived based on a
multi-model consensus of the 00Z ECMWF/00Z EC mean and the 06Z
GFS/GEFS with smaller contributions from the 00Z CMC/CMC mean and
the 00Z NAEFS. Beginning on Day 5, more of the 06Z GEFS together
with the 00Z EC mean were used to handle the increasing forecast

...Weather/Threats Highlights...

The favored guidance consensus still shows the potential for
another episode of locally heavy rainfall over parts of the South
into Tuesday-Tuesday night. Expect the upper low forecast to be
over the south-central Plains early Tuesday to open up as it
continues eastward, interacting with a front near the Gulf Coast
and supporting one or more frontal waves along with some inclusion
of Gulf moisture. Lighter precipitation could reach as far north
as the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Precise northward
extent and intensity of precipitation remains fairly uncertain but
a general southward trend has been noted. The upper low closing
off to the west of California should bring moderate amounts of
moisture into the southwestern U.S. and Plains by mid-late week
(some snow possible at high elevations over the Four Corners
states), still with only moderate confidence for timing at best.
Confidence trends even lower for the northward extent of
precipitation over the eastern half of the country by late
week/weekend, given the differences in how much eastern U.S. upper
troughing develops in response to upstream amplification. To the
east of the Rockies, with both systems there could be some wintry
weather in the northern fringe/higher elevations of the
precipitation shield if the moisture extends far enough north.
Over the Northwest/West Coast, precipitation should initially be
light to moderate and primarily over northern areas. The upper
trough approaching the West Coast later in the week should bring
an increase and southward expansion of precipitation with a trend
for earlier arrival time.

The above normal temperatures expected over the Northern Plains
and vicinity through the period are one of the more consistent and
confident aspects of the forecast. There should be decent
coverage of plus 10-20F anomalies for highs/morning lows most days
and some locations could see highs greater than 20F above average.
Southern and eastern states will see a cool day Tuesday with the
East Coast most likely to see some highs 10-15F below normal,
followed by a rebound toward normal. Locations near the East
Coast could see a cooling trend next weekend depending on how much
upper troughing develops. The West will see a warming trend that
should support highs reaching 5-15F above normal by late in the



A busy week of local, regional and even NATIONAL media interviews following filing of lawsuit against Mayor Lovely Warren...


A week after "the calamity" that derailed my nearly 20 year career in television meteorology, on January 15th 2019, my wife and I decided I should get back to doing what I love, THE WEATHER... and just like that, BOOM, #WxLIVE came alive!

I'm so thrilled to be able to continue to share my love for weather with so many great Rochesterians and Western New Yorkers... and the best part is that I get to do it with my truely lovely bride of 17 years by my side. 

In the heart of what we do, you'll find passion for weather, faith and community as #AKALisaRay and myself LIVE stream the program across multiple social media platforms including Facebook and YouTube. In addition to daily radar and forecast updates for Rochester and Western New York, you'll get to experience weather and family entertainment all at the same time... #Weathertainment!

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Jeremy and Lisa Rae Kappell


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