Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022
Valid 00Z Mon Jun 13 2022 - 00Z Wed Jun 15 2022
...Dangerous heat to continue across the Southwest tonight before cooler
temperatures arrive on Monday...
...Dangerous heat to continue across the Southern/Central Plains tonight,
then shifting farther north and east on Monday and Tuesday...
...Strong to severe storms possible across portions of the
Northern/Central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic tonight...
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories currently cover an expansive
portion of the U.S. -- stretching from the Desert Southwest to the
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Another night of record-setting heat is
expected across those areas, with nighttime temperatures forecast to
bottom out in the upper 70s and 80s in many locations. This will likely
be the last in this stretch of record-setting days in the Southwest, as a
strong Pacific cold front drops into the region, introducing notably
cooler temperatures into the region on Monday. However, the heat will
expand across the central into the eastern U.S., with record-breaking
temperatures extending north into the Central Plains and east from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas on Monday. Temperatures will begin to
moderate across the Plains on Tuesday as the front moving through the West
begins to impact the region. Ahead of the front, the heat will continue
to build, with well-above normal to record-breaking temperatures expected
from the Midwest to the Carolinas on Tuesday.
In addition to cooler temperatures, the system moving across the West is
expected to bring additional precipitation to the Pacific Northwest,
northern California, and the Northern Rockies through the remainder of the
weekend. Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect across parts of
Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana where the combination of moderate
to heavy rain, melting snow, and saturated soils is promoting significant
rises along the area's rivers and streams. As the system moves east of
the Rockies, a strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop over
southern Canada late Monday, promoting windy conditions and rain changing
to snow across portions of the Northern Rockies. A Winter Storm Watch
remains in effect late Monday and Tuesday for the West Glacier Region and
the Northern Rocky Mountain Front in Northwest Montana, where several
inches of heavy wet snow can be expected for areas above 5000 ft.
Strong winds, low humidity, and warm temperatures ahead of the front will
contribute to critical fire weather conditions, prompting Red Flag
Warnings across portions of southern Nevada, northern Arizona, southern
Utah, southern Colorado, and northern New Mexico today. Critical Fire Risk
will shift into the Four Corners region, northern New Mexico and
southeastern Colorado on Monday.
Unsettled, stormy weather is expected from the Northern Plains to the Mid
Atlantic over the next few days, with a series of upper disturbances
bringing the threat for severe weather across the region. For tonight,
isolated to scattered strong and severe thunderstorms are forecast for the
Northern and Central Plains, with large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes possible. Isolated severe storms, producing damaging winds and
large hail, are also possible across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
the southern Mid-Atlantic region. On Monday, scattered severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop once again across portions of the
northern Plains, and from parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and
the Ohio Valley. Once again, these storms may produce large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The threat of severe thunderstorms
spreads into the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday as the strong cold front moves out over the region.