Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 30 2024 - 00Z Thu Feb 01 2024

...Clipper-like system will bring light to moderate rain/snow showers to
the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Appalachians late Monday into Tuesday...

...Mild end to January continues for most of the country with high
temperatures running 10-20 degrees above average...

...Atmospheric River will begin to impact the West Coast by Wednesday...

Much of the country will remain dry over the next couple of days as broad
upper-level ridging shifts from the western to central part of the
country. One exception will be with a clipper-like system dropping
southeastward from the Midwest into the Southeast. Light to moderate
rain/snow showers will spread from the Great Lakes Monday evening into the
Ohio Valley and Appalachians during the day Tuesday. Little to no snow
accumulations are anticipated outside of higher elevations of the
central/southern Appalachians, where a couple inches or so will be
possible. Shower chances will increase for the Carolinas Wednesday, with
the potential that coastal areas may see some locally heavier showers
enhanced by a coastal low developing in the Atlantic.

The broad upper-level ridging will also keep temperatures well above late
January averages by 10-20+ degrees for most of the country Tuesday and
Wednesday. The greatest anomalies are in the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper Midwest where highs in the upper 40s to mid-60s are as much as 20-30
degrees above average. A few daily records could be tied or broken. Highs
along the West Coast through the Desert Southwest and into the Southern
Plains will be in the 60s and 70s, with 50s and 60s for much of the
Intermountain West. Temperatures will be closer to or a bit below average
for the Southeast and northward along the East Coast as conditions are
slower to moderate following a cold front passage. Forecast highs range
from the 20s and 30s in New England, 30s and 40s for the Mid-Atlantic, and
50s and 60s in the Southeast and Florida.

Some light to moderate showers are forecast for portions of the coastal
Pacific Northwest through Tuesday as a series of Pacific waves pass by the
region. Attention will then turn to an Atmospheric River expected to begin
bringing impacts to the West Coast as early as Tuesday evening, and
ramping up through the day Wednesday. A combination of strong dynamic
forcing as well as a deep, anomalously high stream of moisture moving into
southwestern Oregon and northern California will lead to very heavy
rainfall, with totals of several inches possible. The warm air will keep
snow levels high at first, allowing for heavy rainfall along upslope
portions of the coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains in effect for the threat of some
flooding. Heavy snowfall, with totals measuring into multiple feet, is
expected for higher elevations (generally above 5000-6000 feet) of the
Klamath Mountains and Sierra Nevada where precipitation will begin and
remain as snow through the event. Strong, gusty winds up to 65 mph are
also expected for portions of southwestern Oregon and northern California
beginning late Tuesday night.

Putnam