WINTER STORM UPDATE: Models are shifting! What this means for snow and ice projections.

The big upper low that will be responsible for a MAJOR WINTER STORM over the weekend is currently spinning just offshore the Pacific Northwest Coast. This system makes "landfall" tonight and will give our models a better opportunity to sample the storm. Expect models to come to a consensus tomorrow.

In the meantime, the National Weather Service has been busy issuing Winter Storm Watches (blue) and Winter Storm Warnings (pink). Warnings have been issued for much of the state of Kansas and Missouri. Further east watches extend through Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and into West Virginia where Advisories and Warnings are ongoing from the system currently reponsible for the current blast of cold air that has taken up residence over much of the Eastern US.

A notable trend has developed over the last 24 hours with the major models shifting the track of the storm to the south. The European Forecast Model (shown below) has had the most dramatic shift for this storm moving the center of the forecasted low pressure center about 50 miles to the south of where it was placed just 24 hours ago.

So what does this mean?

As you probably know if you follow me regularly, the Euro is the superior mid-range weather model and often detects shifts in forecast track before the GFS (the American model) and the GEM (the Canadian model). With that being said, there are signficant differences between the GFS (below on the left) and the Euro (below on the right) as far as forecasted amounts of both ice and snow.

While these differences will likely work themselves out over the next 24 hours as the upper storm comes into the US grid. In the meantime, I place my confidence in the further south placement that the Euro has for both ice and snow swaths. For the less experienced meteorologists out there they might be more likley to go with a blend between the two models which could really fool some folks with a "busted" snow forecast for places like Peoria, Indianapolis and Columbus Ohio where the GFS is going 12 - 18" in those areas. According to the Euro these areas could only end up with a few inches.

So what do I think?

I think a lot of folks will be surprised by the time we get into the weekend and see that many areas will end up "missing out" on the heavy snowfall while others may end up getting more than they bargained for. With that being said, we are still looking at a lot of snow in some in some areas and a lot of ice across Southern MO, Southern KY and into the Appalachians.

I'll be back to discuss ice amounts and the latest snowfall projections during my LIVE VIDEO UPDATE on Facebook and YouTube at 8:45 ET this evening.

See you then!