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Jeremy Kappell Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Communicator, and Advocate for Christ

Jeremy and Lisa Ray Jeremy and Lisa Ray

Jeremy and Lisa Ray

Meteorologist, Communicator, and Advocates for Christ

A WEEK OF MEDIA INTERVIEWS

A busy week of local, regional and even NATIONAL media interviews following filing of lawsuit against Mayor Lovely Warren...

HELLO, WE ARE WxLive!


A week after "the calamity" that derailed my nearly 20 year career in television meteorology, on January 15th 2019, my wife and I decided I should get back to doing what I love, THE WEATHER... and just like that, BOOM, #WxLIVE came alive!

I'm so thrilled to be able to continue to share my love for weather with so many great Rochesterians and Western New Yorkers... and the best part is that I get to do it with my truely lovely bride of 17 years by my side. 

In the heart of what we do, you'll find passion for weather, faith and community as #AKALisaRay and myself LIVE stream the program across multiple social media platforms including Facebook and YouTube. In addition to daily radar and forecast updates for Rochester and Western New York, you'll get to experience weather and family entertainment all at the same time... #Weathertainment!



More About US


Jeremy and Lisa Rae Kappell
WxLIVE Weather Live Streams

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Streaming from Facebook nightly at 8:45pm EST.

Kappell Weather Blog

Why I'll be marching in DC on Saturday... Read more

Why I'll be marching in DC on Saturday...

While we are now all locked into the political/social/cultural ramifications of a divided, if not blatantly fraudulent, US Election that has brought even more chaos to what has already been an unbelievably chaotic 2020, relationships are literally being lost over who will be the next Commander in Chief.  So WHY are we SO divided in America right now and why I'll be marching in Washington this weekend... 

Heat Advisory Issued for Western New York Read more

Heat Advisory Issued for Western New York

A duration heat wave is setting up this week with some of the hottest conditions in years.  As a result, the NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for much of the region with heat indices near 100°F at times.  

Time for a Break Read more

Time for a Break

After nearly a year and a half now of unscheduled, unscripted and unrelenting chaos, it was time for a break. Reflecting on The Calamity, Corona Virus, National Crisis and FAITH.  

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Lisa Ray's Blog!

Why I'll be marching in DC on Saturday... Read more

Why I'll be marching in DC on Saturday...

While we are now all locked into the political/social/cultural ramifications of a divided, if not blatantly fraudulent, US Election that has brought even more chaos to what has already been an unbelievably chaotic 2020, relationships are literally being lost over who will be the next Commander in Chief.  So WHY are we SO divided in America right now and why I'll be marching in Washington this weekend... 

A LOVE NOTE Read more

A LOVE NOTE

Three years ago today, it was Jeremy and my 15th Anniversary. It was also the day that would change our life forever..

Am I a Racist? Read more

Am I a Racist?

On January 6, 2019, my family became "racists" because of an accidental misspeak and a false narrative. Moving forward, I have noticed a damaging trend where so many label and make quick judgments. The year 2020, has not held back in that area..

Time for a Break Read more

Time for a Break

After nearly a year and a half now of unscheduled, unscripted and unrelenting chaos, it was time for a break. Reflecting on The Calamity, Corona Virus, National Crisis and FAITH.  

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Rochester's 7 Day Forecast

image 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Tue Nov 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northeast across the region tonight and this
will produce a very brief period of light snow mixed with rain. Low
pressure will then cross the region later Wednesday afternoon
through Thanksgiving Day, producing periods of rain across the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather is holding early this evening with thickening mid/high
clouds ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front will move
quickly northeast across the eastern Great Lakes tonight, moving
into Western NY later this evening, and reaching the eastern Lake
Ontario region after midnight. An associated area of mid-level warm
air advection is likely to produce a brief (roughly two hour) period
of precipitation across northwestern portions of the cwa. This will
appear more impressive aloft on radar than at the surface since a
substantial dry layer (present from 850mb to 720mb per 00z BUF
sounding) will evaporate some precipitation before it reaches the
ground. Although model QPF is light, synoptic scale lift provides
confidence for likely to categorical PoPs from Buffalo-Rochester
northward. What does reach the ground will mainly be snow, possibly
ending mixed with a little rain. So while this may provide a brief
`burst` of snowfall, there is high forecast confidence that any snow
accumulation will be light (dusting to an inch at best).

Low temperatures tonight will occur early this evening, generally in
the lower to middle 30s in Western NY and upper teens to lower 20s
for the North Country. Temperatures will then rise overnight
following the passage of the warm front.

Any lingering warm frontal light snow and rain across the North
Country early Wednesday morning will end. Otherwise the rest of the
area will stay dry through the morning and midday hours. Surface low
pressure and an associated mid level low will reach northern Indiana
to southern Lake Michigan by late Wednesday afternoon. Increasing
DPVA and a diffluent flow aloft will allow widespread rain to
develop from west to east during Wednesday afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the mid 40s inland and north to around
50 across the lake plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening surface low tracks northeast into Michigan Wednesday night
and then into SE Ontario by early Thursday morning. Ample moisture
and large scale accent will lead to a continuation of widespread
light rainfall Wednesday night.

Thursday, the low will weaken with model guidance showing just a
weak surface trough moving across the area. Widespread rain
will taper off to scattered showers or drizzle by Thursday
afternoon.

A mid-level ridge will move across the area Thursday night into
Friday, with weak surface ridging as well. However forecast
soundings show lots of moisture trapped beneath an inversion. It
be mainly rain-free, but any decent surface flow may result in
patchy drizzle northeast of the lakes.

A shortwave and weak surface cold front is forecast to move
across the region Friday night into Saturday. This combined with
orographic lift may produce some light rain showers which may
possibly be mixed with snow across higher terrain. Amounts would
be light. After that, surface high centered along the Mid-
Atlantic takes over and provides dry weather for Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large synoptic storm system could develop late next weekend
and into the beginning of December...one that could bring a
period of rainfall...gusty winds and trailing lake effect snow.
However for this to happen a coupled jet must occur...and the
two main jet stream features are still a long ways out.

A look at water vapor imagery displays an energetic shortwave trough
approaching the coastline of Washington this afternoon...with a
distant shortwave just to the east of the Kamchatka Peninsula in far
eastern Russia. The first shortwave will eventually cut off from the
main jet over the desert Southwest, and slowly advance eastward.
Meanwhile the second shortwave will pass across the Pacific.
Forecast by the 12Z suite of models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) is for
these two features to phase, forming a deep trough across the
Mississippi Valley Sunday night and into Monday.

A surface low will develop Sunday within an inverted surface trough
lying along the eastern coastline of Mexico and Texas. The desert
Southwest upper level low will then deepen this surface low, and
within the dynamic phased jet, this surface low will track
northeastward. Here is where the models split and become more
uncertain...as the surface low could track and linger to our west
through this period allowing for precipitation to fall mainly as
rain (12Z ECMWF) or track a bit farther eastward, backing westward
to our region...but allowing for some cold air intrusion that could
allow for rain Monday to change to snow (lake effect) later Tuesday
(12Z GFS/Canadian).

Given how far out these features are any slight speed change to the
shortwaves within the jetstreak could have big implications on early
next week`s weather. There is also a lot of uncertainty as to how
much cold air eventually filters in behind the synoptic storm
system, with the 12Z deterministic models even now right on the
threshold for rain/snow with the 850 hPa temperatures around -5 to -
8C.

For the forecast, Sunday will be dry and sunny with surface high
pressure nearby...but high level cirrus will increase through the
afternoon hours. Rain ahead of these upstream shortwaves will likely
arrive late Sunday night and into Monday...and will use low likely
PoPs for this...that even without a phasing jet...still has high
probability of occuring. Thereafter will just use chance Pops with a
mix of rain and snow Monday night and Tuesday due to a lot of
uncertainty among the models.


Stay tuned.


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