Jeremy Kappell / Monday, March 29, 2021

/ Categories: Weather, Current Weather Forcast

No Fooling.. Winter Is Not Finished. Advisories and Warnings Issued.

UPDATE: Winter Weather Advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service for most, Rochester and Syracuse included. Winter Storm Warning reserved for the Tug Hill, North Country and Adirondacks...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

NYZ003-013-021-010300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.210401T0300Z-210401T2100Z/
Monroe-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Geneseo, and Wellsville
1253 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Monroe, Livingston, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

NYZ006>008-010300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.210401T0300Z-210401T2100Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1253 PM EDT Wed Mar 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Newest models, including the today's run of the 3k NAM showing the system slipping far enough east to keep the system snow into Central and Eastern partsof the of the state. However, Western New York remains in a band of lake enhanced and lake effect snow showers in it's wake as arctic air rushes over the still open lake waters.

How much snow?

According to both the hi-res NAM and hi-res Canadian models (below) this will be a miss for the Niagara Frontier including Buffalo and Rochester with only minor accums expected. The thrust of the heavier snowfall looks to be reserved for the higher terrain across Central and Northern parts of NY State and into Interior New England where models project 6 to 12 inches.

So what do I think?

I think the Winter Weather Advisory put out by the National Weather Service seems very generous forecasted snowfall amounts (2-5") within the Advisory area. A more realistic expectation of 1-2" may seem more reasonable at least for Rochester and most of this will come from lake effect snow showers during the day on Thursday.

With warm surface temps, roads should be largely unimpacted. The exception will be for refreezing that could occur on untreated pavement Thursday evening.

The heavier snows may still be possible for the higher terrain into Central and Northern New York State where locally 4 to 8 inches will be possible.

Happy April Folks!

-Jeremy

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UPDATE: A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for parts of Western/Central and Northern New York State.

A late season blast of winter is on the way for many in Western and Upstate New York and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued and includes the cities of Rochester, Syracuse, Oswego and the Finger Lakes.

Which areas could be looking at 7 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow and when to expect difficult travel in this UPDATE...

-Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Speaker, Talk Show Host, Blogger and American Patriot

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I wanted to provide a quick update to some forecast details that I mentioned last night concerning the potential for snowfall later this week.

In addition to the return of subfreezing temps, this afternoon's run of the European weather model continues to develop a surface low across the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday and into Wednesday night bringing with it a mix of rain changing to snow for parts of the Eastern Great Lakes including Western and Upstate New York.

In addition to the potential of a system snow Wednesday night. Additional lake enhanced and lake effect snow will be possible as arctic air rushes over the still open waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on Thursday when surface temperatures may be hard pressed to reach freezing.

So how much snow are the models projecting?

Here's a look at the current run of the Euro (ECMWF) and the GFS below..

While there are obviously large differences between the two and it's too soon to say if either of these models will be correct, the trend is clear. There is a growing potential for accumulating snowfall Wednesday night/Thursday. I'll be discussing during our 8:45 Patreon LIVE Stream this evening and also weather updates on https://www.youtube.com/user/jkappell1.

Lisa and I will be back on Facebook on Tuesday.

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Don't look now, but winter will be making a comeback this week.

Models have been projecting the arrival of a DEEP upper level trough extending down from Northern Canada later in the week bringing a shot of some very cold temperatures for this time of the year.

Models are going 15-20°C or 25-35°F below normal by Thursday as highs may be hard pressed to escape the 20's for the first day of April.

In addition to the coming cold, models are coming into better agreement about the placement of a surface low that looks to track across the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday/Thursday bringing a mixture of precipitation to the region with the possibility of a round of accumulating system snow and lake effect squalls.

Sorry to say, but the joke will be on us this April Fools Day. The good news is that the cold snap will be a brief one with much milder conditions arriving in time for Easter Weekend.