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Jeremy Kappell

5 Year Anniversary: EPIC Lake Effect Snow!

The epic November 17-19th 2014 lake effect event will be remembered 
as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo's snowy 
history.  Over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, 
with mere inches a few miles away to the north.   There were 14 
fatalities with this storm, hundreds of major roof collapses and 
structural failures, 1000s of stranded motorists, and scattered food 
and gas shortages due to impassable roads.  Numerous trees also gave 
way due to the weight of the snow, causing isolated power outages.  
While this storm was impressive on its own, a second lake effect 
event on Nov-19-20 dropped another 1-4 feet of snow over nearly the 
same area and compounded rescue and recovery efforts.  Storm totals 
from the two storms peaked at nearly 7 feet, with many areas buried 
under 3-4 feet of dense snowpack by the end of the event.
The storm began Monday around 6PM evening (Nov 17) as a band of snow 
developed over the Buffalo Southtowns and quickly moved into the 
Northtowns with thunder and lightning.  However, the band settled 
south fairly quickly...and by 9PM the band had moved mostly just 
south of the city and airport and locked in place as the 15-20 mile 
wide band centered on a line from Lackawanna and Hamburg ENE across 
West Seneca, Lancaster, and Alden.  The northern edge of the lake 
effect band was so striking that many described it as a wall of 
snow.  Snow rates on the northern edge easily exceeded 3 inches per 
hour with some snow rates near 6 inches per hour.  By sunrise some 
areas had already exceeded 3 feet of snow.  This occurred in under 
12 hours. Meanwhile, the southern edge of the band was located along 
the Lake Erie shoreline in Chautauqua County to near the Southtowns, 
including Orchard Park, East Aurora, and east into Wyoming county 
including Attica where about a foot of snow had fallen by sunrise.  
Travel across the Southtowns was nearly impossible with most roads 
unplowed as plows, at least those that weren't stuck, focused a few 
main roadways needed for emergency vehicles.  The Thruway was was 
shut down from the PA border to Rochester, and other routes, 
including 190, 290, and 400 were also shutdown.  
During Tuesday November 18, the snow band didn't budge, and by 
nightfall snow amounts from Lancaster to Southern Cheektowaga east 
to Alden had accumulated in excess of 4 to 5 feet by the end of the 
day. The wall of snow was still quite apparent with blue skies to 
the north and zero visibility on the other side.  On Transit Rd, 
there were only a few inches on the ground at Genesee St, but 
several feet of snow at Walden Ave less than 2 miles to the south. 
Winds gusted to 35 mph...and briefly gusted higher along the edges 
of the band...but in general winds created sub-blizzard conditions.  
There were still whiteout conditions however as snow continued to 
fall in excess of 3 inches per hour.  
The band began to waver a little to the south Tuesday night...but 
overall continued in a slightly weaker state over the southtowns.  
Finally, the band let up as it drifted to the north and weakened 
rapidly Wednesday morning.  
East of Lake Ontario, a lake band developed south of Watertown 
Monday night, then drifted north across the city and ENE to 
Harrisville.  This band produced stronger winds than its Lake Erie 
counterpart, with gusts mostly in the 40-50 mph range with a peak 
gust to 55 mph at Watertown, producing blizzard conditions at times. 
   By Tuesday night...the band settled south over the Tug Hill 
Plateau...then quickly moved north Wednesday morning.  Storm totals 
were highly variable ...with snow amounts generally ranging between 
1-2 feet in the hardest hit areas.  
From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an 
unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and 
climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over 
a 30 year climatology.   500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to 
-42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening.  With lake temperatures 
around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb 
temperature and maxed out near 20000'.  Further up in the 
atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in 
recent memory.  The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C 
was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum.  From 
pattern recognition, this was a high confidence event...with "feet" 
of snow in the forecast over four days in advance.  Data from the 
Saint Louis University CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation 
Systems) showed several analogs that matched 24 hour record snow 
events for Buffalo.  Locally generated climatological analogs also 
showed that this event fit the bill for a significant event.   The 
office had 56 hours lead time on a Lake Effect Watch and 32 hours 
lead time on a Warning.  The office mentioned 3-5 inches per hour in 
the Warning prior to the start of the event, and mentioned 2-3 feet 
forecast with additional significant amounts with the next event 
later in the week.  Travel was forecast to become nearly impossible. 
On a side note, this has happened before.  During December 14-18, 
1945.  The airport measured nearly 37 inches with in excess of 70 
inches just 4-6 miles south (Lancaster).  

Information Courtesy National Weather Service Buffalo

Wow. Epic indeed!

Lisa and I will back Monday night with our next edition of WxLIVEat845.  See you in then!

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