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Jeremy Kappell

Winter Returns to WNY over Weekend

After a lull in wintry precipitation since the "official" start of winter a couple weeks ago, that will change this weekend with the return of some colder air.  As low pressure slides to our south, we'll see a shield of precipitation developing by morning on Saturday.  While an initial burst of rain is expected, a pretty quick change over to some wet snow looks likely by around daybreak.

A period of some moderately heavy, wet, snowfall is projected by both the Euro and the 3k NAM (shown above) before diminishing to some light snow and snow showers during the afternoon.  The system looks to end as some light lake enhanced and lake effect snow showers Saturday night.

How much precip?

Total precipitation on the order of a quarter to a half inch appears likely for most with locally higher amounts acorss portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.  

While precipitation amounts will be generous, and this will be largely just a snow system, temperatures will be a limiting factor when it comes to snowfall accumulations as the mercury runs in the lower to middle 30's during the event. (3k NAM below showing 35° for a morning high)

So how much snow?

Overall, a general one to three inches appears likely for most of Western New York with lesser amounts on the immediate lake shore and higher amounts for the higher terrain across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier where temps will be a touch colder and precipitation a bit more. 

Impacts on roads should be negligible since ground is warm and snow should become light by the time temps fall below freeing Saturday night.

Overall, this system appears pretty weak.  However, it will be followed by a colder stretch heading into next week that will bring the potential for more snowfall by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Lisa and I will be back with a full update on the "return of winter" on Sunday's WxLIVE at 8:45!  See you then.

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