This could be bad. Historically bad for the Plains!
May is typically considered the most active month for severe weather across the US, and looks to live up to that billing as we head into this weekend and into early next week.
Some VERY STRONG jet stream winds will be revolving out of the Southern Rockies and into the PLAINS starting Friday. The combination of these powerful upper level winds, along with multiple waves of low pressure, combining with increased low level moisture and heating looks to create conditions that will be favorable for multiple outbreaks of tornadoes and severe weather.
In fact, for the first time since the Storm Prediction Center started issuing a 4 to 8 day convective outlook, they have placed a risk (15% or greateer) across each of those five days starting this Friday. They rarely issue anything beyond day 5 or 6 at all, so that in itself is a relative rarity. But to have EACH day highlighted really says something about the set up that we are looking at through the period.
The day 4 outlook actually includes a 30% risk which would be equavlent to an "Enhanced Risk" and will be primed for supercell tornadoes to develop along the dryline from Central Nebrasks clear down through West-Central Kansas, Western Oklahoma and into West Texas. From there the risk shifts south and east encompassing much of the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday before pushing east into the Middle Mississippi River Valley on Sunday.
By Monday, a new upper wave in the jet stream ejects out with a new batch of severe weather anticipated across the Plains States on Monday and Tuesday.
Updating this risk along with the improvements we're finally expecting across Western New York in tonight's WxLIVEat945. See you there!