October Outlook: Summer-like warmth fades fast this week. Looking beyond.
For those that love summer-time. Tomorrow will be a day to relish because I don't see it being repeated anytime soon.
Current run of the Euro showing mid to upper 80's on the first day of October! This would be record challenging warmth with the current record for October 1st sitting at 86 degrees established WAAAAAY BACK in 1877. Wowl.
Now beyond that, I see impressive upper ridging giving way to a much more progressive jet stream pattern for the middle of the week which looks to allow for the passage of a series of cold fronts that will knock those temps back below normal (mid 60's) with temps plunging through the 60's on Wednesday and highs not escaping the 50's by Friday.
That my friends will feel like a HUGE drop in temps considering the "effective drop" more than 30 degrees between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
Temps look to climb back close to normal by the end of the weekend. However, looking beyond, there is data to support that upper level ridging still plays a significant factor for the middle of the month. The GFS shown below shows us going back into a rather high amplitude ridge across the eastern part of the continent by around the 9th or 10th of October.
The Climate Prediction Center agrees with this assessment and is going with ABOVE NORMAL temps over much of the Eastern and Southern US in the 8 to 14 day range.
In addition to some warmth, above average rainfall is expected over the same area in addition to the Pacific Northwest.
So what about the second half of October... Halloween???
This is where the data becomes much more uncertain. The trend in recent days however, has been to cool temps down during the final couple weeks of the month with the CFS (the GFS climate model) showing signficant cooling over Central and eventually Eastern parts of the continent.
If this verifies, then we could expect some pretty chilly days ahead with first freeze opportunities arriving by mid month. Average highs by the end of the month are only in the middle 50's, so a "below average" Halloween could mean extra layers for trick or treaters.
With that being said, we are clearly in a seasonal transition period as October often is. This means the breakdown of summer and the establishment of new patterns going into the cold season. This is a time of the year where models can really struggle to keep up with the changes. I would not be surprised if this forecast does not change significantly in the coming weeeks.
I'll have a complete update on the October Outlook and what looks like a very wet midweek tonight's edition of WxLIVEat845!
See you there.