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Jeremy Kappell

November Outlook: Is the cold here to stay?

The Climate Prediction Center released it's November Outlook and since the new month is here, I thought we'd take a look at their forecast and the set up.

Their forecast includes above normal temperatures for the Western US with below normal conditions expected for much of Central US and into the Great Lakes and Northeastern US with a higher confidence of colder than normal conditions.

 

CPC is also forecasting below normal precip for parts of the Central MS River Valley and into the Central Rockies/Great Basin with above normal for parts of the Southeast, Montana and West Texas.

What do the models say?

All the models generally agree, like the Euro featured below (500 mb height anomalies), that the unseasdonably large upper level trough responsible for the current cold outbreak across the Central and Eastern US will contiue to dominate our weather over the next one to two weeks ahead.

This idea is well represented with the Climate Prediction Center's 8 to 14 day outlook with a high confidence in below normal temps during that range across the eastern two-thirds of the US and specifically for the Great Lakes and Northeast.

CPC is also forecasting below normal precip for parts of the MS River Valley and into the Central Rockies with above normal for much of the Northwest, Southern US and specifically across the Eastern Great Lakes.

Beyond that, Euro Ensemble temps anomalies show the cold easing some for the second half of the month. (see dates of below temp anomaly maps)

So what do I think? 

I think with the current set up, as also forecasted by CPC, we are locked in with the unseasonable chill to start the month.  This means lots of cold air moving across Great Lakes improving the chances for precip and likely some early season snow across Western New York. I especially like the set up during the 8 to 14 day range.  Last November delivered more than 17 inches of the white stuff and it's possible we could repeat with above normal snowfall again given the current pattern. The second half of the month is not as clear, however, the Euro Ensembles do have support from other long range models increasing the odds that we end the month on a warmer and perhaps drier note.

How's about this winter?

While I don't plan on addressing that topic in detail here, I have began putting together a winter outlook.  Lots of factors to consider this year including the state of El Nino/La Nina, the current drought status over portions of the US and sea surface temperature anomalies over both the Central Pacific and Western Atlantic Oceans. 

I plan on releasing the WxLIVE 2019-'20 Winter Outlook next week.  Stay tuned for that. 

In the meantime, Lisa and I will be back with our next Edition of WxLIVEat845 Monday night.  See you then!

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