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Jeremy Kappell

Early Season Winter Storm Looming...

Earlier this afternoon I noted on fb how the three main medium range models seemed to be converging on a solution that would mean a significant early season snowfall as we head into early next week for much of the region.  

Taking a broader look at this suddenly midwinter-like pattern, it has been obvious that the unseasonble, possibly record breaking, cold (see below temp anomaly animation and note the very cold colors, blues to pinks, developing over the Eastern US) will be a big story going into next week.  

What hasn't been so obvious is the track of a surface low pressure system that will move to our south Monday-Tuesday.  Until now, there were HUGE differences in what the GFS (the Global Forecast Station, ie American Model) was saying and the Euro and Canadian.  As of this morning, all three had come up with the same idea which would essentially take this low from the Ohio Valley across the Appalachians and into New England.  

A track such as this is climatologically favored for snowfall for the Southern Great Lakes, Western and Upstate New York, even though it's still pretty early in the season.  Thanks to the abundance of cold air, as mentioned, precipitation type becomes much less of a question.  So the real question that remains, keep in mind we are still 60+ hours out from onset, will be the exact track, strength and placement of the low.  With that being said, I would not be spending my Friday evening blogging about this potential if I didn't think it warranted the attention.  

As I mentioned in the forecast update on the website... "Current model data strongly suggests that much of the region will be impacted by a significant, early season snowfall developing on Veteran's Day and into Monday night.  While accumulations during the day should limited, there is increased confidence that we'll see an area wide plowable snow by Monday night with several inches possible."

So how much could we be talking about?  

While it's too soon to pin down a narrow forecast range, I believe the latest run of the Euro is showing a reasonable outcome based on what we know so far with widespread 6+ inches across Western New York and a foot+ over the North Country.

So what does this mean?  

While it's not quite a lock yet, it is looking increasingly likely that we will see the first winter storm of the season arriving on Veteran's Day with widespread heavy snowfall possible Monday night. 

As I mentioned during the blog from last night, with the record challenging cold air that is expected to arrive midweek, we are also looking at the potential for locallized heavy lake effect snows as well Tuesday and into at least Wednesday morning.  

Moral of the story: Winter will be arriving early this year! 

I'll be on with a special Fortnight Friday edition of WxLIVEat845 covering details.  See you in a bit!

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